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  1.  (438.181)
    I'm having a time out until I can learn some manners.
    everyday i wake up and Huckabee makes himself look even worse to me.

    The saddest part is that i tell other people these things and they seem to support him more...
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      CommentAuthorZ
    • CommentTimeJan 22nd 2008
     (438.182)
    Not that anyone will be surprised, but..

    <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/22/thompson.out/index.html">Fred Thompson dropped out. </a>

    No president L&O for us. Oh well. Maybe Hillary or Barack will appear on a very special episode of SVU.

    -Z
    • CommentAuthorKosmopolit
    • CommentTimeJan 22nd 2008
     (438.183)
    If Thompson had dropped out before South Crarolina, most of his support would probably have gone to Huckabee and he would probably have won that state.

    At this point, Huckabee seems to have the religious right pretty much to himself which will be an important voting block in the southern states on Super Tuesday.

    Romney, McCain and Giuliani still seem to be fighting it out over the moderate and fiscal conservative wings of the party with Ron Paul getting about 5-10% from Libertarians and the extreme anti-government types.

    If McCain wins in Florida as recent polls suggest, he'll likely see off Giuliani and Romney to emerge as the candidate for the moderates. Looks like Guiliani's strategy of avoiding the early contests has back-fired.

    I'm starting to think this one will got to the Convention floor with McCain leading Huckabee but without an absolute majority.
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      CommentAuthorCyman
    • CommentTimeJan 23rd 2008
     (438.184)
    That said, Romney's still got the most delegates- And the fewest human characteristics.
    I'd love to see McCain take the GOP- Easily the most moderate Republican. Huckabee I think is starting to frighten even Republicans with this talk of "changing the constitution to reflect God's will"...
    At least I hope that scares people!
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      CommentAuthortikistitch
    • CommentTimeJan 23rd 2008
     (438.185)
    On the Republican side? *bbbbbbuuuuuuhhhhhhhh* Usually, there is at least one of them I don't find appalling. Not this time.


    I agree. Even the ones I thought would be not so bad are heinous. Right now, Democrats are kind of having to play the "everyone in the country who's not completely barking batshit party," which is a lot of ground to cover.
    • CommentAuthorKosmopolit
    • CommentTimeJan 23rd 2008
     (438.186)
    My dream scenario for the general election involves Huckabee, Paul or both of them mounting right-wing third party challenges while the Democrats run Obama-Clinton (and to be honest I don't care too much which of them has the top slot).
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      CommentAuthorpico
    • CommentTimeJan 24th 2008
     (438.187)
    Huckabee won't mount a third party candidacy. There's a chance that Paul will, just because he's been having a solid showing across all the states thus far and has a ridiculous amount of money stored up, but if he does, then it's christmas morning for the liberals across the nation, as he would siphon more GOP than Democratic votes. the nightmare scenario for me would be McCain actually getting the GOP nomination. While he's older than my grandparents and frightening in so many ways, he has enough crossover appeal to pose a threat, especially if the Democratic party doesn't wake up enough to realize that the best way to assure defeat is to nominate HRC. If McCain does get the nod, i predict that Lieberman will switch parties to accept his VP slot and Connecticut will burn his likeness in protest. Romney would be just likable enough to the free-market zealots in the GOP to get the nomination and detestable enough my the rest of the country to lose the election.

    Huckabee's candidacy is interesting in that he's further to the center on more issues than it appears, e.g. providing schooling scholarships to children of illegal immigrants. Of course, bringing the constitution in line with "God's Will" (whateverthefuck that is) would only go against one or two dozen of the underpinnings of the document itself, no big deal. Though if he gets the nod and wins, I'm pretty sure that will be the last straw as far as inspiring Vermont and Hawaii to secede from the union. Meaning i would completely move to Vermont.
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      CommentAuthorGnosus
    • CommentTimeJan 24th 2008
     (438.188)
    One caucus in NV was tied for the Dems, and so Hillary and Obama's supporters broke the tie with a draw of cards.

    Obama's Card: 10 of Spades

    Clinton's Card: Queen of Hearts

    This should end all debate as to whether America's elections are fixed.
    You can't make this shit up
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      CommentAuthorVespers
    • CommentTimeJan 24th 2008
     (438.189)
    Wait, wait. So, they decided to break the tie with a card draw, at which point a *Clinton Supporter* said "Oh no you're shuffling wrong" and went down to shuffle himself, and then Clinton won the card draw.

    Because there's no way at all that someone with some experience with shuffling cards could have some experience in deck-stacking and the tricks stage magicians use to get people to draw the card they want them to.
  2.  (438.190)
    Paul has repeatedly said he would not run a third party or independent campaign -- which doesn't really rule it out but makes it unlikely. And if he did run, he would just as likely split the anti-war vote with the Democrats, especially if Hillary (who has less credibility on that topic than Obama) is the Dem nominee, as he would split the anti-abortion, anti-immigrant vote among Republicans (and let us not forget that there are plenty of anti-immigrant Democrats as well). An independent Paul candidacy would likely be a wash insofar as the final outcome is concerned, unless the two majors come really close, in which case it would be impossible to determine Paul's impact either way.
    • CommentAuthorKosmopolit
    • CommentTimeJan 26th 2008
     (438.191)
    "{Paul has repeatedly said he would not run a third party or independent campaign -- which doesn't really rule it out but makes it unlikely."

    Several of the State committees of the Constitution Party have already nominated him so I think it remains a possibility.
    •  
      CommentAuthorScribe
    • CommentTimeJan 26th 2008
     (438.192)
    There's a chance that Paul will, just because he's been having a solid showing across all the states thus far and has a ridiculous amount of money stored up, but if he does, then it's christmas morning for the liberals across the nation, as he would siphon more GOP than Democratic votes. the nightmare scenario for me would be McCain actually getting the GOP nomination.


    According to campaign finance laws he can not use all the money he has saved to run a general election campaign. It gets a little complicated, but funds are separated at the time of donation and can not be moved from one election fund to another until after the general election takes place.
    • CommentAuthorKosmopolit
    • CommentTimeJan 26th 2008
     (438.193)
    Obama wins key South Carolina vote

    2 hours ago

    COLUMBIA, South Carolina (AFP) — Senator Barack Obama routed Hillary Clinton in South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary on Saturday, riding massive African-American support to a critical win in his bid to become the first black US president.

    US television projected Obama as the winner in the key contest for the Democratic Party nomination, with Clinton in second place trailed by former senator John Edwards in third.

    Obama, who badly needed a win to keep his hopes alive, was projected to win with 81 percent of the black vote, while Clinton, who would be the first woman US president, took 17 percent of that segment according to a CNN exit poll.

    The South Carolina vote marked a second key victory for Obama and evened the score with Clinton, who has also won two key state primaries ahead of a blitz of nearly two dozen nationwide contests on February 5.

    CNN said with 55 percent of the results in, the charismatic Illinois senator had won 55 percent of the state vote, after the earlier dropping contests in New Hampshire and Nevada following his shock triumph in Iowa.

    New York senator Clinton received 27 percent of the vote, while Edwards took 18 percent.


    18% for Edwards in his home state - and the only state he won in the 2004 primary season- is a terrible result and probably ends his chances of being a credible candidate.

    His misfortune probably helps Obama who may now be in a position to unify the anti-Hillary section of the Democratic Party.

    I still think Clinton is the likely Democratic candidate but Obama is still in the race.
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      CommentAuthorroque
    • CommentTimeJan 26th 2008
     (438.194)
    oh goddamnit. and Edwards was the only one who had the slightest chance of being electable.

    maybe I'll just stay in Japan another five years...
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      CommentAuthorjohnjones
    • CommentTimeJan 27th 2008
     (438.195)
    oh goddamnit. and Edwards was the only one who had the slightest chance of being electable.

    maybe I'll just stay in Japan another five years...


    Whether he is or not, Edwards gives the impression of being an empty shirt. Either Obama or Clinton are fully capable of being elected. I think Obama has a better chance because his spouse seems less prone to going batshit-insane on the campaign trail.

    Of the Republicans, the only who seems electable to me is John MCain. Whether that sways them to nominate him is yet to be seen, though it's seeming more and more likely as time passes. Besides, if McCain is elected I won't be too disappointed. Anybody who scares Rush Limbaugh is okay by me.
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      CommentAuthororwellseyes
    • CommentTimeJan 27th 2008 edited
     (438.196)
    I want a convention fight.

    How long has it been since either party's convention was anything less than a coronation? People should see how the delegate process works. The modern media, including online media, getting into the state delegations, seeing the wheeling and dealing. Instead of Arnold Schwatzenegger reading cue cards at us or Zell Miller scaring the children you'd have an actual news event.

    Come behind the counter and see the sausage being made.

    Edwards could stay in just long enough to play spoiler/kingmaker. Finally giving him relevance.
  3.  (438.197)
    Word right now is that Obama's people are circulating the possibility of offering Edwards Attorney General, which would be interesting, though I'm not sure how well that would work. If Edwards went for it, though, any delegates he takes on Feb 5 would be helpful to Obama.

    Ted Kennedy is endorsing Obama tomorrow, which ought to make Clinton's head spin and make it that much more possible for him to actually take the nomination. As much as Bill may want to downplay it with his references to Jesse Jackson, Obama's SC win was huge, and he truly has a chance at the ring.
  4.  (438.198)
    Also, regarding Edwards's supposed electability, let's not forget the flat-out embarrassing debate in 2004 against Cheney, where Edwards showed just how much he looks like a little boy when on the same stage with a Republican of any confidence. Not to mention the fact that, since all of his campaign talking points contradict his Senate voting record, he'll be replaying John Kerry's "I was for it before I was against it" times ten. Edwards is White, Southern, and not electable. Strange, but likely true.
  5.  (438.199)
    Word right now is that Obama's people are circulating the possibility of offering Edwards Attorney General

    I've heard that Edwards was selling but Obama wasn't buying. Not sure if that was in regard to AG or VP.
  6.  (438.200)
    I had heard that it was Obama's people circulating the rumor, which I assumed was to pique Edwards's interest in then trying to sell...but the truth is really anybody's guess at this point.

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