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London Zoo: [Closed] Early Guesses: Who Gets The '08 US Party Nominations?

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      CommentAuthorjigsawjones
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007 edited
     (67.41)
    that ABC internet site that asked you questions and then recommended a candidate told me I should vote for the UFO spotter.


    A political video podcast took that ABC site and plugged in answers based on the most recent national polling data. They found that the vast majority of Americans would, based purely on the issues, vote for the UFO spotter.

    Poor bastard. I mean, I understand -- I have also seen an object flying through the sky that I couldn't identify. It doesn't mean either of us think flying saucers are buzzing the planet. It just means we don't know everything.

    edit: found the link for the aforementioned video. Political Lunch
    •  
      CommentAuthorJay Kay
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.42)
    I'm starting to like Kucinich--anyone that squirrely looking able to bag a hot girl like Elizibeth must have something going for him. Seriously, he's the type of crazy we need right now.
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      CommentAuthorAdlai
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.43)
    I'm really hoping it's Obama, but i think this is unlikely as he is actually human. Clinton seems to be the most likely as a) she shouldn't really qualify as a human and b) she's basically a republican posing as a democrat.
    • CommentAuthordcasino
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.44)
    I know it makes no sense at all, but I've still got a sneaking suspicion we're going to get this: [Edwards]

    More likely than you think. Here's the experiment (we last ran it in October): half the people in the survey get questions about race and gender relations before being asked about the Dem nomination, half get the questions afterwards. What happens: Hillary and Obama both drop, pretty substantially. Bottom line: Americans are still racist, and sexist, and enough of both to throw it to the top white guy.
    Results here:
    href="http://www.thepublicmind.com/drags/index.html">
    Yes, even among Democrats. Best estimates put 94% of white adults as racists, at least on a subminal level. Give 'em a reason to vote against a black man, and they'll take it, even if they don't know that's why they're doing it.
    Of course, Hillary is still the presumptive nominee for the Dems, but I think that Edwards is more likely than Obama if she can't hold it together through February. I have no idea who the veep is going to be, but I'd say Richardson if I had to go out on a limb.
    For the Republicans, I'm saying Huckabee. Romney and Giuliani take each other out, and he's left to pick up the pieces. He wins big in Iowa, carries it into New Hampshire, and splits the February 5th vote with Giuliani. From there, long, brusing primary, with all of us laughing ourselves silly as they manage to alienate the entire electorate.
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      CommentAuthorFractal
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.45)
    (Disclosure: I'm a slightly flawed but mostly left-wing Canadian.)

    This election is a fascinating trainwreck. If I had to pick it, I think I'd go with Hilary Plus X for the Democrats and...god, I've no idea for the Republicans. Giulani is a crook, Romney is a Mormon, and Huckabee is from Arkansas. At least Huckabee has a sense of humour. Let's say Giulani / Huckabee, in a feeble effort to drag the evangelicals along, with Hilary-Bot 2.0 winning it.

    For me, the thing about Hilary is that a lot of people are going to look at her as Bill's third term...and after EIGHT YEARS of George W. Bush, Bill looks awfully good.
  6.  (67.46)
    I think the fact that Hillary is a woman is overshadowed by the idea that she can be used to the advantage of the ruling class in America. Maybe it's just my screwed up brain, but I see her as a malleable candidate, the kind of thing that has gotten more recent past presidents elected. Don't pick steadfast sides unless it outwardly supports the red states and for everything else remain on the fence and exactly like your opposing candidate.

    I have trouble completely trusting Obama because he's being shopped to "young people" so goddamn much that he feels like a Mt. Dew commercial sometimes. But I have to say based on all the options, he's the one I would root for right now.

    Which means I think it'll be Hillary/Bayh vs. Guilani/someone that doesn't matter. Rudy's got the whole 9/11 shit working for him, which makes me sick, and the red staters either never heard of nor care about all of his terrible, just god awful policies and actions as mayor before that day. And as screwed as it is, I honestly believe that the Dems will give it to a woman before they vote in a black man because that's what they see the majority of America doing.

    Which is why I may not come back from Tokyo in 2008.
  7.  (67.47)
    Giuliani is doomed. Huckabee is spoiling Iowa and McCain is spoiling New Hampshire, pushing Giuliani into third and putting Romney out front after both contests are through. George H.W. Bush pulled out a third-place showing in Iowa only by winning New Hampshire. Both Dole and Bush Jr. went second in NH but won Iowa. Reagan went second in Iowa but first in New Hampshire.

    If history is an indicator, you can lose one of these states, but not both.
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.48)
    "Hey, there were black men who supported George Wallace."

    I remember living in east Texas around the time David Duke was running for governor of Louisiana. A surprising number of black were voting for him-- it was a strange thought process, something like him being able to keep an eye on him in the Governor's Mansion.
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.49)
    America's best matchup: Obama/McCain
    America's worst matchup: Clinton/Giuliani

    My take? One from column A, one from column B. I can't imagine both parties are going to pit the two candidates with the single most negative images at each other-- especially not the Republicans. Center the focus on Rudy for a few weeks and let the American people learn about the pigheaded asshole who they've canonized because he made the only smart PR moves on 9/1.
  10.  (67.50)
    I'm having a time out until I can learn some manners.
    coming from iowa myself, i would be upset if obama didn't get it. As for the other side i bet Rudy, but if huckabee got it, i have this strange feeling that people would flock to him.
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.51)
    Karl Rove to Obama: How to Beat Hillary

    "Her record is weak, her personality off-putting and her support thin. If she wins the nomination it will be because her rivals – namely you – were weak when you confronted her and could not look her in the eye when you did."
  12.  (67.52)
    If Clinton gets the nomination look for General Wesley Clark as her VP, and a solid pick in my mind at that.
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007 edited
     (67.53)
    @allendeche -- I dunno, hasn't Clark been off the national stage for a bit too long?

    Even though I don't rate it as likely, a Clinton/Obama ticket would be a good sell. I say it'll wind up being someone like Richardson or Biden, both of whom are essentially running for VP at this point.
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      CommentAuthorScribe
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.54)
    <blockquote>coming from iowa myself, i would be upset if obama didn't get it. As for the other side i bet Rudy, but if huckabee got it, i have this strange feeling that people would flock to him.</blockquote>

    I agree about Huckabee. Republicans have a way of circling the wagons once they pick a candidate, and I believe they will do it for anyone except Ron Paul. Right now the three legs of the Republican party keep threatening to withhold support if so and so gets nominated, but I think it's all a smoke screen for political posturing of their beliefs.
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.55)
    Oh, they'd absolutely flock to Huckabee. He's one of the few with legitimate evangelical credentials. I've got to think that the scariest thing for the RNC right now is Rudy's pro-choice, pro-gay marriage stance.

    Y'know, Huckabee's getting the resurgent press right now but I feel like we shouldn't completely count McCain out.
  16.  (67.56)
    I say that it doesn't matter: the power structure wins regardless. The ongoing institutionalization of surveillance and the condensation of power in certain nooks and crannies of the government means that whomever gets it inherits a state apparatus that will almost certainly corrupt them. Unless someone extremely committed to changing that system gets the position, it won't really matter. The two-party system is too invested in the way things currently work, and each party will do their best to put someone in charge to enhance their standing and clout. Everyone running right now except for Kucinich, Mike Gravel, and I think Ron Paul is a slick politician just trying to grab the big seat and give their cabal control.
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 2nd 2007
     (67.57)
    @ erudite ogre

    There is only one man in America plausibly capable of doing that-- the sort of man beholden to no one but himself. He is the six billion dollar man, and his name is Mike Bloomberg. But he's not running because he knows that even he can't win in this system.

    So, we're left to hope that the least of these many evils somehow sneak into office.
  18.  (67.58)
    Glad to see the strong support for Obama. Out of the likely candidates, he's the only one I see who's not ashamed to be identified as a liberal. Who the hell knows how it gained its venomous quality.

    - Zachary -
  19.  (67.59)
    Even if Huckabee was a viable candidate, I don't think I could get behind him because all I think of when I hear his name is Naomi Watts whispering "FUCKABEES."
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      CommentAuthorJohn Smith
    • CommentTimeDec 3rd 2007 edited
     (67.60)

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