Not signed in (Sign In)
This discussion has been inactive for longer than 5 days, and doesn't want to be resurrected.
    •  
      CommentAuthorChrisSick
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2008 edited
     (872.1221)
    The overnights from CNN have her ahead by 9 points with 7% undecided, but Real Clear Politics, whose polling range stopped mostly on the 20th, but a few go up to yesterday has her at a 6.1% lead with 6% or so undecided. I'd call it anywhere between 4 to 7 points for Clinton, and the unknown is who the undecideds actually are. If that 7% number is mostly made up of Catholic ex-steel families from Western and Northern PA, then it swings for her, but it seems a lot more likely that the some or all of the 7% contains a fair amount of the 90,000 new voters registered in PA this cycle. Something like 62% of that number most likely supports Obama, and the turnout of previously registered Democrats- if past contests are any indication- could be 100% higher than previous races. (Edit: CNN just said something about 200k + new registered voters, so my 90k number could be soft). New and younger voters are going to swing for Obama according to all the models so far. He'll lose Pittsburgh and Western and Northern PA, but he could counter most(if not all) of that with the monolith that is the Philadelphia Metropolitan Area. 35% of registered voters live in Philadelphia alone and the politics of it's five county suburban area are much closer to the concerns of the city than the more rural and working class areas of PA. Not enough to carry Obama over the hump, but enough to keep Clinton's win small. Which isn't the real story, the real story is that Clinton has a working capital of about what 10 million give or take? She doesn't win by 10 points today(and she won't, with any luck the win will be under five) that puts a lot of crimp in her ability to fund raise. That happens and Indiana(which is also under a 10 point race) becomes a lot harder nut to crack. So she gets a minor victory in PA today, possibly another or a tie in Indiana and then blown out in North Carolina first week of May(yes? It's been a long night already and a long cycle). And that is how the Clinton campaign goes down swinging, boys and girls.

    Anyone want to put any money up?

    If anyone needs me I'll be playing Splinter Cell for the next five hours until the polls are closed.
  1.  (872.1222)
    Hillary is totally going to get the Republican nomination with ads like that.

    What a malicious asshole she's turned out to be.
    •  
      CommentAuthorChrisSick
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2008 edited
     (872.1223)
    Additionally, according to CNN right his second nine people were killed in Chicago by gun violence over the weekend. Seven in my former home city of Philadelphia. That's this weekend, the day before yesterday and the day before that.

    The next time I see Clinton take a shot or Obama roll a gutter ball on my television, I sweartochrist I will just reach through the television and start punching some fucking necks.
    •  
      CommentAuthorChrisSick
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2008
     (872.1224)
    Are we really that worked up about the ad? She lists a series of crisis points in American history and implies- without actually saying it- that she is more qualified to tackle the problems than Obama. Show bin Laden isn't about trying to link him with anything, bin Laden is one of if not the most wanted criminal in the globe and eight years of inept military and foreign policy haven't caught him and have problem given him a field day in terms of recruitment and support throughout the Muslim world.

    Guys, no one can question my strong Hate for Clinton, if I'm of the opinion that this isn't dirty, someone is off the reservation and it ain't me.
    •  
      CommentAuthorstsparky
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2008
     (872.1225)
    I hope Clinton's ads cost her the PA vote. Dirty tactics don't prove anything.

    I have no patience anymore to discuss politics with those closest to me.
  2.  (872.1226)
    It's primary day, and I am in Philadelphia PA, what many in the media are throwing out to be the heart of the storm.

    I live in West Philadelphia and I walk to University City often. It's a beautiful walk, tree-lined streets, people walking outside. For all the insanity that is portrayed in the media, I have to say, as a person on the street, and I mean that I walked my customary mile and a half across the western side of the city today, it's rather peaceful.

    I see a lot of Obama signs in my area, rarely a Clinton and never a McCain. Philadelphia often goes blue, so that's not a big surpise, and yes, its a city with a significant population of people of color. By that, I mean that in my neighborhood there are Ethiopian immigrants, white people, Koreans, Vietnamese, African Americans and college students, which as everyone knows, are a special demographic all of their own.

    I feel like the media sensationalizes a lot of things. Nothing is perfect, I know that, there are lots and lots of problems. The murder rate is on the rise in Philadelphia. Kids committ break-ins and mug people. Potholes go unfilled in lots of places in the city. But there are less sensational stories out there too. Like the fact that my mixed neighborhood came outside two Saturdays ago to clean up our street and garden our front steps. Or that almost everyone in my section of the city knows Benny, who runs the corner market, or that every Saturday kids of all races gather in Clark park to play, or that the farmers market, which offers cheap and healthy food, gets bigger every year.

    Or that when I hear people talking about Clinton and Obama in coffee shops and and the farmers market, I haven't heard people yelling at each other, or talking about how if one person wins they are going to stick their head in the sand and cry. It's been a debate. People have been talking with each other. After Obama gave his speech on race in America, people said hello to me who had never done so before. It didn't solve any problems, but from my perspective, it put a little crack in the wall that seperates people. At least in my town. For a little while.

    My point is, from here on the ground in Philly, it's not as insane as it's made out to be my the mass media outlets. It's a quiet, sunny Tuesday. It's warm outside and the flowers are in bloom.
    •  
      CommentAuthorChrisSick
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2008
     (872.1227)
    Blackwell, there were four hundred murders in Philadelphia last year, and I believe I read somewhere that something like fifty percent of those victims were black men under the age of twenty-five.

    About a week and a half ago I stayed with my best friend in Fishtown for a few nights and in the mornings we walked down the street to a little cafe run by lesbians with the best breakfast I've had since I left Philadelphia(Silk City used to be my spot after getting off work at the bar) and it was crowded and quiet and nice. I used to have friends living right on Spring Garden near the museums and when I got too drunk to go home I would crash on their couch and my morning walk to the busstop was a thing of beauty. I was lucky enough that when I wasn't staying in in Fishtown my hotel was a block and a half from Rittenhouse Park which is beautiful in almost any weather. None of that changes the fact that there were four hundred murders last year and that a week ago the discourse hit a new low across the street from the building where the Founders created this country. Or the Philadelphia International is staffed by the rudest bunch of bastards in the world. Or that that they had to put a courtroom in Vet's Stadium and stop serving beer in glass bottles because there were too many people getting glassed...

    Philadelphia is like any other place in the world, beautiful and a bastard all at the same time, worse on some things than other places and better on others(for instance my three favorite new local bands all came out of Philadelphia this past year). It just happens to be this month's tempest-in-a-teapot because of a close race and a large amount of delegates up for grabs. I don't think anyone thinks any less or more of it for that. Although the fact that a few months back two brothers got into a knife fight there over which candidate they supported doesn't exactly speak volumes for the city.
    •  
      CommentAuthorGreg SBB!
    • CommentTimeApr 22nd 2008
     (872.1228)
    I've got a horrible gut feeling Clinton's going to squeak into her 10-12% safety margin regardless of Obama's spending spree.

This discussion has been inactive for longer than 5 days, and doesn't want to be resurrected.